Photo : Institute for the study of war
15 August 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #280
War in Ukraine: Day 171 & 172
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 14 August, Ukraine soldiers destroyed a self-propelled howitzer and a T-72 tank and were reported to have killed nine Russian soldiers. However, Russia was successful in shelling eight communities in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. Ukraine’s state border guard service said that the Russian attack was done through mortars, MLRS, tube artillery, grenade launchers, and heavy machine guns. Around 150 explosions were heard, and civilian infrastructure was also damaged.
On the same day, Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksiy Reznikov requested the Ukraine Defense Contact Group member states to delegate experts in military justice to work on cases of Russian war crime in Ukraine. He said the goal was to create international groups which will analyze the facts and decide how war crimes should be punished. Additionally, Reznikov appealed to the President of the European Court of Human Rights, Robert Spano to account the state of Ukraine’s prisoners of war under Russia’s control.
On 13 August, Russia’s troops tried to advance in Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Novopavlivka, and Pivdennyi Buh directions but were repelled by Ukraine’s forces. Ukrinform reported that in Avdiivka, Russia’s forces were found to be trying to break through the enemy line and Ukraine’s forces have continued to attack the Russian ground lines of communication. It is to trap and destabilize the Russian attacks along the Dnipro River while launching a counterattack. By targeting the bridges to Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, and the Antonivsky bridge, Ukraine has attempted to cut off the transfer of supplies to the Kherson Oblast, forcing Russia to use pontoon bridges to transfer their supplies. Which will be a challenging task for Russia.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 14 August, Russia's spokesperson, Mikhail Ulyanov, stated how Russia has been regularly updating the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. He announced the agency’s upcoming visit to the site, which would help in finding the responsible party for the plant shelling. Ulyanov later asked Ukraine to stop attacking the plant to facilitate a visit from the IAEA mission. Ulyanov said: "An international team cannot be sent to work under continuous artillery shelling. This is the main obstacle.”
On 13 August, In the interview with TASS, Russia's foreign ministry spokesperson, Alexander Darchiev said that US's influence on the Ukraine war has been on an increasing trend. He said: “Apart from the large-scale military and financial aid, and also the moral support for the (Ukrainian President Vladimir) Zelensky regime, the Americans are increasingly becoming a direct party to the conflict.” On US participation in the war, Darchiev suggested convincing Zelenskyy to initiate negotiations with Russia and that the US should respect the stance taken by Russia and the warning issued by Lavrov. He also mentioned that the US will need to respect Moscow's interests and statements before bilateral relations between the two countries can be improved. He added that Russia was reacting calmly and not going out of its way to seek peace talks.
According to the report released by Rosstat showed that in the second quarter of 2022, the GDP dropped by four per cent in the first full quarter since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, In the last three quarters of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, Russia reported sizeable GDP growth. Although Rosstat did not analyze the reasons behind the drop, it found that wholesale trade had dropped by 15.3 per cent and retail trade had contracted by 9.8 per cent.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 14 August, a European operator’s group, GIE reported that on 12 August, Germany’s gas storage facilities were over 75 per cent full. Germany which is in the second phase of a three-stage emergency plan has 23.3 billion cubic meters of underground gas storage, which is slightly increased from one-fifth of the country’s gas usage in 2021.
On 13 August, Hungary's foreign ministry said that Gazprom has ramped up gas supply to Hungary via the TurkStream pipeline. This comes after Hungary, which is 85 per cent dependent on Russia for gas, firmly opposed the EU sanctions and also lobbied to be exempted from the same. In July, foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto met with Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov to seek an additional 700 million cubic meters of gas, along with the long-term supply deal with Russia.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russia is attempting to attention away from Ukraine’s counteroffensive action in southern Ukraine by renewing its focus on north-eastern Donetsk Oblast. While relying heavily on artillery barrages of surrounding settlements, Russian forces had scaled back offensive actions east of Siversk and conducted sporadic and limited ground attacks. However, recently, Siversk has seen an increase in Russian ground attacks. The continued assaults toward Bakhmut may be intended to attract Ukraine's attention to the Bakhmut-Siversk line in north-eastern Donetsk Oblast to divert Ukraine's attention from critical areas in the South, where Ukrainian troops have conducted effective counterattacks and which could set the stage for an offensive.
On 13 August, Czech Republic’s pipeline operator Mero claimed that oil supply from Russia has been resumed on 12 August. This comes after oil delivery to Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic had been stopped via the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline because of payment-related issues. On 12 August, Czech Republic’s foreign minister Jan Lipavsky said that his government will look to secure a consensus about the EU-wide ban on visas for Russian citizens. Holding the EU rotating presidency, the Czech Republic backed the call by some Baltic States for the move but it has gained little traction otherwise. German chancellor Olaf Scholz however said that he will not support it.
Scholz also spoke about the gas crisis in Europe and said that the continent needed an interconnection linking the Iberian Peninsula with central Europe. Portugal and Spain supported this. Portugal's prime minister, Antonio Costa said Scholz's comments might catalyze the progress on the pipeline, which he called a priority. Costa also said that Europe was considering an alternative project for a pipeline linking Spain to Italy, to bypass France, who has objections on environmental grounds.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
The Ukraine war has skyrocketed the prices of oil and gas, the Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco has broken its profit records. With a 90 per cent year-on-year increase, the company had a USD 48.4 billion profit in the second quarter of 2022. The world's largest energy exporter however announced that it would keep its dividend the same as before at USD 18.8 billion.
On 14 August, Pope Francis addressed the food security crisis, and the problem of world hunger and referred to the issues in the Horn of Africa. He spoke about Somalia and said that the war in Ukraine had taken away the attention from the looming famine in the country.
Earlier in August, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said that a famine might officially be declared in eight regions in Somalia if livestock continued to die and amidst commodity price rise, humanitarian assistance failed to reach the people who needed it.
The UN resident coordinator in Ukraine Denise Brown also addressed the issue and said that the UN chartered ship, Brave Commander will leave from Pivdennyi for Ethiopia in Africa with 23,000 metric tonnes of wheat. Brown said: “Since the war began, the UN and our humanitarian partners have been prevented from sending supplies to areas temporarily beyond the control of the Government of Ukraine. The partnership between the UN and Government of Ukraine is key to doing more.”
References
“Ukrainian gunners destroy nine Russian soldiers, howitzer, tank in southern Ukraine, ” Ukrinform, 14 August 2022
“Russia shells eight communities of Sumy, Chernihiv regions from its territory,” Ukrinform, 14 August 2022
“Reznikov Appeals to Ramstein Countries to Bring Russian War Criminals to Justice,” Kyiv Post, 14 August 2022
“Russian offensive campaign assessment, August 13,” ISW, 13 August, 2022
“Enemy attempted to advance in several directions but retreated with losses,” Ukrinform, 13 August 2022
“Kiev must stop NPP shelling, offer security guarantees to IAEA mission — diplomat,” TASS, 14 August 2022
“Visit to NPP may allow IAEA to name those responsible for shelling — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 13 August 2022
“US increasingly involved in conflict in Ukraine — Russian diplomat,” TASS, 13 August 2022
“Washington should force Zelensky to return to talks before it’s late — diplomat,” TASS, 13 August 2022
“Moscow names condition for ‘normalizing’ relations with US,” RT, 13 August 2022
“Russian GDP drops 4% in Q2 -- 1st full quarter of fighting,” AP News, 13 August 2022
“Gazprom ramps up gas flows to Hungary via TurkStream pipeline,” Euractiv, 14 August 2022
“Germany reaches 75% gas stocks target ahead of schedule,” Reuters, 14 August 2022
“Oil shipments from Russia resume to Czechia,” AP News, 13 August 2022
Peter Laca, “Russia Visa Ban in EU Wins Key Backing From Czech Presidency,” Bloomberg, 12 August 2022
“Portugal and Spain welcome Scholz's call for gas pipeline from Iberia to central Europe,” Euronews, 12 August 2022
“Saudi Aramco: Oil giant tops own record with $48.4bn quarterly profit,” BBC, 14 August 2022
Philip Pullella, “Ukraine war diverts attention from hunger, pope says in Somalia appeal,” Reuters, 14 August 2022
Andrea Shalal, “U.N.-chartered ship in Ukraine readying for journey to Africa,” Reuters, 14 August 2022
Saviano Abreu, “Remarks of the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine Denise Brown on WFP vessel departure from Odesa.” United Nations Ukraine, 14 August 2022
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav
FRANCE
Firefighters bring the wildfire under control leading to reopening of highway
On 13 August, firefighters stopped France s wildfires from spreading. With the help of Europe’s reinforcements, the local firefighters stopped the advance in the smoldering fire in the Gironde region's forests. More than 20000 hectares of forests were burned in July in France causing 40000 people to be temporarily forced out of their houses. Storms are expected to bring down the temperatures raving in Europe. European providing firefighters and waterbombing aircraft have helped curb the wildfires tremendously. The halted fire has made the reopening of a stretch of highway possible. (“France halts spread of "monster" wildfire, reopens highway,” Reuters, 14 August 2022)
GERMANY
Windfall taxes will not be collected: Christian Lindner
On 14 August, Germany’s finance minister Christian Lindner stated that the country should not tax surplus companies during an economic and energy crisis. Taxing windfall levies would interfere with market forces. Germany has decided not to levy excessive taxes on energy companies, unlike Italy and the UK. He said Germany has to stick to tight fiscal spending to keep inflation in check. Lindner has published his initiative to try and waive the value-added tax on a new gas levy to spread the extra energy costs more evenly to the EU, which Germany will announce on Monday. The different opinions of the members of the three-party coalition where economy minister Robert Habeck and the greens are opposed to the decision, while chancellor Olaf Scholz of Social Democrats had mentioned that imposing windfall taxes would be challenging. (“Germany's finance minister says he opposes taxing 'excessive' profits,” Reuters, 14 August 2022)
THE UK
New maritime strategy counter threats to the marine environment
On 15 August, a new maritime strategy was introduced in the UK to strengthen its capabilities, technologies, and security. The five-year strategy will guide the UK government to approach the threats and risks both domestically and internationally. The new strategy ensures a free, fair, and open maritime domain that has checks on any illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing and anything that harms the environment. Immediate addressing of maritime security threats. The seabed mapping technology and the shipping industry are also under focus of the maritime strategy to advance UK’s port facility. (“New maritime security strategy to target latest physical and cyber threats,” gov.uk, 15 August 2022)
Boris Johnson addresses the cost-of-living crisis in his letter to Nicola Sturgeon
On 12 August, the UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson replied to Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon regarding her letter on 08 August. He addressed the issues that were placed by Sturgeon in her letter. He mentioned that GBP 15 billion was allocated for providing low-income households with support for the cost-of-living crisis. The tax has been reduced and there have been concessions on energy bills up to GBP 400. As assistance to vulnerable households, the government is providing GBP 1200 this financial year. The aid to the Scottish government has also been assured by Johnson to Sturgeon. (“Prime Minister's letter to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon: 12 August 2022,” uk.gov, 12 August 2022)
Foreign individuals removed to Albania
On 11 August, the UK government extradited 20 foreign criminals on a charter flight to Albania. The offenders were convicted of crimes including possession of an unlicensed offensive weapon in the public, supply of A class, and production of B class drugs. They were sentenced to prison for a combined time of 46 years. According to home secretary Priti Patel, the individuals committed heinous crimes and some were of the offense of failing to produce asylum claims. The Nationality and Borders Act will further deter any illegal entry of foreign individuals into the UK. (“Foreign criminals and illegal entrants to the UK removed to Albania,” uk.gov, 12 August 2022)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Brussel’s flower carpet display adapts to heatwave
On 12 August, the flower carpet display in Brussel’s changed its style and showcased heat-resistant blossoms and pot plants to adjust to the heatwave spread across Europe. Flowers like begonias were replaced with Belgian dahlias that contain more water. The 1971 Arabesque shapes inspired the display at the Brussels Grand Palace. The usual cut flower design was changed to potted plants due to its adaptation to the heat and its sustainability in being planted afterward. Volunteers from all around the world spent more than six hours arranging the flower carpet. The flower display is a temporary art show that takes place every two. (“Brussels’ flower carpet blooms despite heatwave,” Euractiv, 13 August 2022)